Evidence
Who led world trade, and how it changed hands
FactPolitical scientist George Modelski described a sequence of leading sea powers since 1500: Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain (twice) and the United States.
FactIn his model each change of leader followed a long global war, and each cycle lasted roughly 70 to 120 years.
InterpretationFollow the money: the leader each time controlled sea routes and the money that paid for trade. Models like this are lenses, not laws, and the dates are debated.
Ask whyWho pays for the ships, and in which currency is your next shipment priced?
What we know
Leadership of world trade has changed hands several times since 1500.What we don't know
Whether the next change will be peaceful, and when; no model can predict that.What it means for me: three seeds
- Check which currency your biggest supplier invoices in.
- Name one product you depend on from a single country.
- Open the Big Picture timeline and pick an era to read about.