Evidence
When trade splits into blocs, everyone pays
FactIn January 2023 IMF staff estimated that severe fragmentation of world trade could cut global output by up to 7%.
FactA limited split was estimated to cost about 0.2%; some countries could lose 8 to 12% if technology is also cut apart.
InterpretationSmall businesses can't stop this, but they can lower their exposure: more than one supplier, more than one route, a cash buffer.
Ask whyIf one border closed next month, which part of your work would stop first?
What we know
Splitting trade into blocs has a real economic cost.What we don't know
How far the split will go; the IMF range runs from 0.2% to 7%.What it means for me: three seeds
- Find one backup supplier and ask for a quote.
- Work out how many weeks your cash would last if sales paused.
- Put "one supplier or two" into the Choice Compass.