Evidence
AI is changing first jobs most
FactA Stanford study of US payroll data (August 2025) found employment for 22- to 25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs fell 13% relative to others.
FactExperienced workers in the same jobs held steady, and the drop was concentrated where AI replaces tasks rather than helping with them.
InterpretationJudgement built over years is still valuable. The smart move is to use AI as a tool for that judgement, not to compete with it on routine tasks.
Ask whyWhich part of your work needs your judgement, and which part is routine a machine could do?
What we know
Early-career workers in AI-exposed jobs have been hit first.What we don't know
How far this will spread to experienced workers, and how fast.What it means for me: three seeds
- Write the five hardest problems you have solved at work.
- Try one AI tool on one of those problems this week.
- Talk to one person who started work in the last two years.