The Big Picture
Leadership of world trade changed hands three times in 500 years. Two scholars saw the same pattern in different ways. These are lenses to think with, not predictions.
Sources: Modelski (Penn State) · Arrighi (summary)
Three seasons to prepare for
No one can predict which will come. Watch the signs, and plant seeds that help in all three.
Calm transition
Power spreads across several centres through trade deals and new institutions.
Signs to watch: More regional trade agreements; payments settled in several currencies; shipping costs steady.
Seeds that help: Keep two suppliers, learn one new market, keep records clean.
Long friction
Tariffs, sanctions and rival technology standards slow trade for years.
Signs to watch: New tariffs announced often; longer delivery times; prices that jump and stay.
Seeds that help: Build three months of cash, price contracts with room to adjust, buy closer to home where you can.
Hard season
Open conflict between large powers disrupts shipping and energy.
Signs to watch: Shipping lanes closed; energy prices spike; government rationing or controls.
Seeds that help: Lean on local suppliers and neighbours, protect essentials, avoid new debt.